CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing of the “Will <person> be <cabinet position> as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?” Contract
KalshiEX LLC · received by the CFTC 5 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)
Summary
Warrant Check read 7 operative provisions in this filing. Across them, 16 of 42 checks are present, 8 partial and 18 absent. No provision has every check present. 1 rule on who may trade is not a settlement term and is left out.
16 present8 partial18 absentWhat the wording addresses
- Payout Criterion / Expiration Value determination: Independent Verification, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“whether <person> has formally taken office as <cabinet position>” - No report by Expiration defaults to No: Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“no Source Agency has reported that person formally took office” - Corrected/retracted Source Agency report governs: Independent Verification, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“If a Source Agency report is corrected, retracted, or removed” - Formation Date 30-day default rule: Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“if no such appointments are made within thirty (30) days”
What the wording leaves open
- Payout Criterion / Expiration Value determination “whether <person> has formally taken office as <cabinet position>”
- Suitable Method — Partial: News reporting can indicate a swearing-in but is not an authoritative legal/constitutional record; the clause's own correction mechanism acknowledges reports can be premature or wrong.
- No report by Expiration defaults to No “no Source Agency has reported that person formally took office”
- Independent Verification — Partial: Rests on the same news-source list, but here used to prove a negative (absence of reporting), which is harder to confirm as exhaustive.
- Suitable Method — Partial: Checking whether any of 17 outlets reported an event can approximate but not conclusively prove the event never occurred or was simply unreported.
- Defined Benchmark — Partial: Standard is 'no report from any listed Source Agency' - defined list but no method for confirming exhaustive monitoring.
- Source Agency conflict / Kalshi resolves ambiguity “Continuing ambiguity or dispute will be resolved by Kalshi”
- Independent Verification — Absent: Resolution rests on Kalshi's own determination, not third-party-receivable evidence.
- Suitable Method — Absent: No defined procedure beyond unilateral discretion is given; strength of the determination cannot be assessed.
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold or criteria for what constitutes resolved vs. unresolved ambiguity is specified.
- Conclusive Link — Absent: no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
- Comprehensive Coverage — Absent: No stated scope for what disputes are covered or how broadly Kalshi's resolution applies.
- Relevant Timeline — Absent: No timeframe is given for when or how long resolution may take.
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
- Corrected/retracted Source Agency report governs “If a Source Agency report is corrected, retracted, or removed”
- Suitable Method — Partial: A later correction is probative of the current state of reporting but, like the original report, is not an authoritative legal record.
- Defined Benchmark — Partial: Rule distinguishes 'formally took office' reports from nomination/coalition-agreement reports, but what counts as a qualifying 'correction' is not tightly defined.
- Formation Date 30-day default rule “if no such appointments are made within thirty (30) days”
- Independent Verification — Partial: Relies on public declaration of 'final official results' and subsequent appointments, but no specific source/document is named for either event.
- Suitable Method — Partial: Counting days from a declared date is mechanically sound, but identifying the qualifying 'first cabinet-rank appointment' still depends on the same loosely-sourced reporting.
- Death / act of violence contingency settlement “Kalshi may, in its sole discretion, settle the Contract”
- Independent Verification — Absent: Determination rests entirely on Kalshi's own 'sole discretion' and belief, not on named third-party-receivable evidence.
- Suitable Method — Absent: No defined investigative procedure is given; discretion alone cannot be assessed for precision against the strong claims made (causation, timing, materiality).
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold defines 'materially affected,' 'reasonably believes,' or 'fair settlement'.
- Conclusive Link — Absent: no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
- Comprehensive Coverage — Absent: No defined population or boundary for which trading activity or time period is examined.
- Relevant Timeline — Absent: Clause permits use of an 'approximate time' at Kalshi's discretion rather than a fixed, verifiable period.
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
- Market Outcome Review Process / Contingencies “Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review”
- Independent Verification — Absent: Trigger and outcome rest on Kalshi's sole discretion, not third-party evidence.
- Suitable Method — Absent: No procedure is specified for how inability to determine the Expiration Value is established.
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: Rule 7.1, the operative standard, is referenced but its content is not included in the supplied text.
- Conclusive Link — Absent: no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
- Comprehensive Coverage — Absent: No scope boundary given for what triggers review versus normal resolution.
- Relevant Timeline — Absent: No time limit is stated for how long review may take or what period it covers.
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
Every provision read
Payout Criterion / Expiration Value determination
“whether <person> has formally taken office as <cabinet position>”
Determination: <person> has formally taken office as <cabinet position> as reported by the Source Agencies · Consequence: Market Outcome set Yes/No; long or short position holders paid the absolute amount
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is reporting by a named, hierarchically-ordered list of independent news organizations (AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.) - documents a third party could receive.
Partial Suitable Method. News reporting can indicate a swearing-in but is not an authoritative legal/constitutional record; the clause's own correction mechanism acknowledges reports can be premature or wrong.
Present Defined Benchmark. "Formally taken office" is extensively defined (sworn in/confirmed under constitutional procedure, appointment window, exclusions for acting/caretaker roles).
Present Conclusive Link. Because the claim is defined in terms of what Source Agencies report, a qualifying report directly establishes the defined claim.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Coverage is the specific named person and specific named position within the specific election's formation process - matches the claim's population exactly.
Present Relevant Timeline. Reporting is checked up to the Expiration Date/time, matching the obligation's operative period, including the 30-day appointment window.
No report by Expiration defaults to No
“no Source Agency has reported that person formally took office”
Determination: no Source Agency has reported the formal taking of office by the Expiration Date · Consequence: Contract resolves No; short position holders paid
Partial Independent Verification. Rests on the same news-source list, but here used to prove a negative (absence of reporting), which is harder to confirm as exhaustive.
Partial Suitable Method. Checking whether any of 17 outlets reported an event can approximate but not conclusively prove the event never occurred or was simply unreported.
Partial Defined Benchmark. Standard is 'no report from any listed Source Agency' - defined list but no method for confirming exhaustive monitoring.
Present Conclusive Link. The clause defines the default outcome directly from the absence of a qualifying report, so the condition as stated entails the consequence.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers all listed Source Agencies, matching the population the claim concerns.
Present Relevant Timeline. Measured strictly up to the Expiration Date, matching the obligation period.
Source Agency conflict / Kalshi resolves ambiguity
“Continuing ambiguity or dispute will be resolved by Kalshi”
Determination: there is unresolved conflict or ambiguity among Source Agencies as to the fact or timing · Consequence: Kalshi's resolution under Rule 7.1 determines the outcome
Absent Independent Verification. Resolution rests on Kalshi's own determination, not third-party-receivable evidence.
Absent Suitable Method. No defined procedure beyond unilateral discretion is given; strength of the determination cannot be assessed.
Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold or criteria for what constitutes resolved vs. unresolved ambiguity is specified.
Absent Conclusive Link. no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
Absent Comprehensive Coverage. No stated scope for what disputes are covered or how broadly Kalshi's resolution applies.
Absent Relevant Timeline. No timeframe is given for when or how long resolution may take.
Corrected/retracted Source Agency report governs
“If a Source Agency report is corrected, retracted, or removed”
Determination: a Source Agency report was corrected, retracted, or removed prior to Expiration · Consequence: the corrected report governs; prior report of holding office pre-formal-appointment is disregarded
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is a subsequent published correction/retraction from the same named third-party outlets - receivable documents.
Partial Suitable Method. A later correction is probative of the current state of reporting but, like the original report, is not an authoritative legal record.
Partial Defined Benchmark. Rule distinguishes 'formally took office' reports from nomination/coalition-agreement reports, but what counts as a qualifying 'correction' is not tightly defined.
Present Conclusive Link. If a correction is published pre-Expiration per the stated rule, it is defined to govern, directly establishing the claim's consequence.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to the same named Source Agency list as the primary claim, matching population.
Present Relevant Timeline. Only corrections before Expiration count; post-Expiration corrections are expressly excluded, matching the obligation period.
Formation Date 30-day default rule
“if no such appointments are made within thirty (30) days”
Determination: the incumbent head of government did or did not make cabinet-rank appointments within 30 days of the results declaration · Consequence: Formation Date is fixed as either the appointment date or the 30th day after declaration
Partial Independent Verification. Relies on public declaration of 'final official results' and subsequent appointments, but no specific source/document is named for either event.
Partial Suitable Method. Counting days from a declared date is mechanically sound, but identifying the qualifying 'first cabinet-rank appointment' still depends on the same loosely-sourced reporting.
Present Defined Benchmark. A specific 30-day period from a specific triggering event (final official results declaration) is named.
Present Conclusive Link. Meeting or missing the 30-day threshold directly defines the Formation Date per the clause's own terms.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Scope is limited to appointments in the specific government formation process at issue.
Present Relevant Timeline. The window itself is the time period being measured, matching the claim.
Death / act of violence contingency settlement
“Kalshi may, in its sole discretion, settle the Contract”
Determination: a death or act of violence/terrorism directly affected the underlying event or trading · Consequence: Contract is settled at a Kalshi/ORC-determined price instead of normal resolution; trading may be halted
Absent Independent Verification. Determination rests entirely on Kalshi's own 'sole discretion' and belief, not on named third-party-receivable evidence.
Absent Suitable Method. No defined investigative procedure is given; discretion alone cannot be assessed for precision against the strong claims made (causation, timing, materiality).
Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold defines 'materially affected,' 'reasonably believes,' or 'fair settlement'.
Absent Conclusive Link. no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
Absent Comprehensive Coverage. No defined population or boundary for which trading activity or time period is examined.
Absent Relevant Timeline. Clause permits use of an 'approximate time' at Kalshi's discretion rather than a fixed, verifiable period.
Market Outcome Review Process / Contingencies
“Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review”
Determination: the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date, warranting review · Consequence: Kalshi determines payouts pursuant to Rule 7.1
Absent Independent Verification. Trigger and outcome rest on Kalshi's sole discretion, not third-party evidence.
Absent Suitable Method. No procedure is specified for how inability to determine the Expiration Value is established.
Absent Defined Benchmark. Rule 7.1, the operative standard, is referenced but its content is not included in the supplied text.
Absent Conclusive Link. no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
Absent Comprehensive Coverage. No scope boundary given for what triggers review versus normal resolution.
Absent Relevant Timeline. No time limit is stated for how long review may take or what period it covers.
Read 31 October 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written.