Settlement terms monitor
How the settlement wording of event contracts filed with the CFTC reads, filing by filing: what each addresses, then what it leaves open.
US exchanges certify each event contract to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the filings are public. CFTC staff letters 26-08 (March 2026) and 26-22 (July 2026) address how specifically those contracts should be described, including the settlement source each one relies on. This monitor reads the public filings with Warrant Check, which tests each operative provision against six checks: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage and Relevant Timeline. Each is shown as Present, Partial or Absent.
Updated weekly · 16 filings read · last updated 1 November 2026
- CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing of the “Will <party> hold <above/below/exactly/at least/at most/between> <count> seats in the House of Representatives of Connecticut after the November 3, 2026, general…KalshiEX LLC · received 26 October 2026 · 5 provisions read15 present3 partial12 absent
- Submission Pursuant to Commission Regulation 40.2(a)Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC · received 23 October 2026 · 9 provisions read19 present8 partial27 absent
- “Will CDNA/Nadex/OG.com’s event contract notional traded volume exceed $2 billion in November 2026?” Event ContractProphetX LLC · received 23 October 2026 · 4 provisions read16 present4 partial4 absent
- Will CDNA/Nadex/OG.com’s event contract notional traded volume exceed $<N> in <Month>?ProphetX LLC · received 23 October 2026 · 5 provisions read17 present9 partial4 absent
- Will Gemini’s event contract notional traded volume exceed $<N> in <Month>?ProphetX LLC · received 23 October 2026 · 4 provisions read14 present6 partial4 absent
- Will Team Vitality win the PGL CS2 Major Singapore 2026?ProphetX LLC · received 21 October 2026 · 7 provisions read29 present9 partial4 absent
- Submission Pursuant to Commission Regulation 40.2(a)Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC · received 16 October 2026 · 6 provisions read12 present13 partial11 absent
- Submission Pursuant to Commission Regulation 40.2(a)Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC · received 16 October 2026 · 8 provisions read26 present13 partial9 absent
- “Will the 2026 Circa Survivor contest end in Week 18?” Event ContractProphetX LLC · received 15 October 2026 · 7 provisions read28 present10 partial4 absent
- CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing of the “Will McLaren’s margin of victory at the 2026 United States Grand Prix be <above/below/exactly/at least/at most/between> <time>?" ContractKalshiEX LLC · received 14 October 2026 · 5 provisions read8 present3 partial19 absent
- CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing of the “Will <above/below/exactly/at least/at most/between> <count> nominees for <award> at the 2026 Billboard Music Awards be women?” ContractKalshiEX LLC · received 13 October 2026 · 7 provisions read17 present6 partial19 absent
- “Will Novig’s event contract notional traded volume exceed $2 billion in November 2026?” Event ContractProphetX LLC · received 7 October 2026 · 3 provisions read8 present4 partial6 absent
- “Will Rothera’s event contract notional traded volume exceed $2 billion in November 2026?” Event ContractProphetX LLC · received 6 October 2026 · 4 provisions read13 present5 partial6 absent
- CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing of the “Will <person> be <cabinet position> as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?” ContractKalshiEX LLC · received 5 October 2026 · 7 provisions read16 present8 partial18 absent
- Gemini Titan, LLC Self-Certification of an Event Contract Series under 17 C.F.R. § 40.2(d) for “Will {team} win the {year} Laver Cup?” (Laver Cup).Gemini Titan, LLC · received 23 September 2026 · 6 provisions read12 present0 partial24 absent
- Gemini Titan, LLC Product Self-Certification under 17 C.F.R. § 40.2(a) for “Will the Dallas Wings win the 2027 WNBA Championship?” Event Contract.Gemini Titan, LLC · received 21 September 2026 · 6 provisions read12 present10 partial14 absent
No filing matches.
How to read a page
Every page starts with what the wording addresses, then what it leaves open: checks that are partial or absent, with what would close each one. The readings describe the wording only. They do not say whether a contract complies with any rule, and they say nothing about how a market will settle. Statements an exchange makes to the CFTC about its filing, and rules on who may trade, are not settlement terms and are left out.