“Will Novig’s event contract notional traded volume exceed $2 billion in November 2026?” Event Contract
ProphetX LLC · received by the CFTC 7 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)
Summary
Warrant Check read 3 operative provisions in this filing. Across them, 8 of 18 checks are present, 4 partial and 6 absent. No provision has every check present. 1 rule on who may trade is not a settlement term and is left out.
8 present4 partial6 absentWhat the wording addresses
- Settlement Criteria / Payout Trigger: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“Resolves to “Yes” if the Reference Volume exceeds $2,000,000,000” - Change in Publication - Void Trigger: Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“If the Reference Volume cannot be determined from any Settlement Reference Source”
What the wording leaves open
- Settlement Criteria / Payout Trigger “Resolves to “Yes” if the Reference Volume exceeds $2,000,000,000”
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
- Change in Publication - Void Trigger “If the Reference Volume cannot be determined from any Settlement Reference Source”
- Independent Verification — Partial: Trigger depends on the Exchange's own assessment of whether publication has ceased/changed and whether the outcome is 'unequivocally determined' - partly checkable against named files, but the 'unequivocal' qualifier is the Exchange's characterization rather than a named third-party certificate.
- Suitable Method — Partial: Checking whether named files still publish event-contract volume for Novig alone is a verifiable procedure, but 'unequivocally determined' is not a defined check and adds an unmeasured layer to the claim.
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold or test is given for what counts as 'unequivocally determined'; only the fact of publication failure/change is objectively specified.
- Conclusive Link — Absent: no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
- Absence of Data - Void Trigger “ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome of the Contract”
- Independent Verification — Absent: Trigger rests on the Exchange's own 'reasonable' determination that it cannot ascertain the outcome; no named third-party certificate, test, or objective checkpoint is specified.
- Suitable Method — Absent: 'Cannot reasonably determine' is a subjective/discretionary standard, not a checkable procedure capable of establishing the claim at any defined strength.
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold, criteria, or named standard for 'reasonably determine' is given.
- Conclusive Link — Absent: no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
- Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Limited to 'another publication of the same data for Novig alone,' which bounds scope somewhat, but the triggering judgment itself is not tied to any defined population of sources.
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: Implicitly tied to the Determination Cutoffperiod but no explicit time boundary is stated for when this absence-of-data assessment must be made.
Every provision read
Settlement Criteria / Payout Trigger
“Resolves to “Yes” if the Reference Volume exceeds $2,000,000,000”
Determination: The computed Reference Volume (aggregate notional value of event-contract transactions on Novig during the Reference Period, per the Settlement Reference Source) exceeds $2,000,000,000 · Consequence: Contract resolves Yes; Yes-side paid $1.00 per Contract, No-side paid nothing
Present Independent Verification. Primary evidence is a publicly posted, free, dated daily data file (markets.csv) published by a third-party registered DCM; secondary/tertiary sources are also named public files or announcements - concrete, receivable evidence.
Present Suitable Method. Reference Volume is itself defined as the sum derived from the named files, so the mechanical summation procedure directly produces the quantity the claim asserts, with a verified reconciliation across counting methods.
Present Defined Benchmark. Explicit dollar threshold of $2,000,000,000 is named and compared to a dollar-denominated computed figure.
Present Conclusive Link. Because Reference Volume is defined identically to the computed figure, meeting/exceeding the threshold as computed is definitionally the claim being tested.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Coverage is expressly limited to transactions executed on Novig, event contracts only, matching the claim's stated scope; no sampling, all reported markets/trade dates within the period are summed.
Present Relevant Timeline. Reference Period is precisely bounded (Nov 1 00:00 to Nov 30 23:59:59 ET); Determination Cutoffand pre-cutoffcorrection rules keep the evidence coterminous with the obligation period.
Change in Publication - Void Trigger
“If the Reference Volume cannot be determined from any Settlement Reference Source”
Determination: The Reference Volume cannot be determined from any Settlement Reference Source and the Market Outcome has not been unequivocally determined · Consequence: All orders on the Contract are void and collateral is returned to applicable accounts
Partial Independent Verification. Trigger depends on the Exchange's own assessment of whether publication has ceased/changed and whether the outcome is 'unequivocally determined' - partly checkable against named files, but the 'unequivocal' qualifier is the Exchange's characterization rather than a named third-party certificate.
Partial Suitable Method. Checking whether named files still publish event-contract volume for Novig alone is a verifiable procedure, but 'unequivocally determined' is not a defined check and adds an unmeasured layer to the claim.
Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold or test is given for what counts as 'unequivocally determined'; only the fact of publication failure/change is objectively specified.
Absent Conclusive Link. no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Clause is explicitly limited to Settlement Reference Sources reporting event-contract volume for Novig alone, matching the claim's scope.
Present Relevant Timeline. Applies within the same Reference Period/Determination Cutoffwindow as the underlying settlement obligation.
Absence of Data - Void Trigger
“ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome of the Contract”
Determination: ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome of the Contract from any Settlement Reference Source · Consequence: All orders on the Contract are void and collateral is returned to applicable accounts
Absent Independent Verification. Trigger rests on the Exchange's own 'reasonable' determination that it cannot ascertain the outcome; no named third-party certificate, test, or objective checkpoint is specified.
Absent Suitable Method. 'Cannot reasonably determine' is a subjective/discretionary standard, not a checkable procedure capable of establishing the claim at any defined strength.
Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold, criteria, or named standard for 'reasonably determine' is given.
Absent Conclusive Link. no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
Partial Comprehensive Coverage. Limited to 'another publication of the same data for Novig alone,' which bounds scope somewhat, but the triggering judgment itself is not tied to any defined population of sources.
Partial Relevant Timeline. Implicitly tied to the Determination Cutoffperiod but no explicit time boundary is stated for when this absence-of-data assessment must be made.
Read 31 October 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written.