“Will the 2026 Circa Survivor contest end in Week 18?” Event Contract

ProphetX LLC · received by the CFTC 15 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)

What the wording addresses

• Settlement Criteria (Yes/No resolution): Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “resolves to Yes if, and only if, the Settlement Reference Source records”
• Contest End determination: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “contest ends in the Contest Week in which Circa Sports determines”
• Shortened/Suspended/Cancelled Contest: Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “If the NFL season is not completed as scheduled”
• Schedule and Format Changes: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “If the referenced Contest Week no longer exists, all orders”
• Corrections: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “If Circa Sports issues any correction within forty-eight (48) hours”
• Last Trading Date/Time: Independent Verification, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “Trading closes when the outcome of the Contract becomes determinable”

What the wording leaves open

• Settlement Criteria (Yes/No resolution) “resolves to Yes if, and only if, the Settlement Reference Source records”
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Attach or incorporate the official Circa Sports contest rules referenced for 'official results' so the standard is self-contained.
• Contest End determination “contest ends in the Contest Week in which Circa Sports determines”
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Include or append the Circa Sports official contest rules defining grading/elimination so entailment can be verified independently.
• Shortened/Suspended/Cancelled Contest “If the NFL season is not completed as scheduled”
  • Independent Verification — Partial: Relies on Circa Sports' actions/published cancellation or a deadline passing, but no single named source confirms 'season not completed as scheduled.'
  • Suitable Method — Partial: The branches (cancellation, suspension, deadline) are individually checkable, but the triggering condition is loosely defined, weakening overall capability.
  • Defined Benchmark — Partial: A precise deadline (11:59:59pm ET before next season) is named for one branch, but 'season not completed as scheduled' has no defined threshold.
  • Conclusive Link — Partial: Meeting the deadline clearly entails voidance; the cancellation/suspension branches entail their consequences but rest on undefined antecedent facts.
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Define 'NFL season not completed as scheduled' by reference to a specific NFL/Circa Sports announcement or schedule document.
• Schedule and Format Changes “If the referenced Contest Week no longer exists, all orders”
  • Defined Benchmark — Partial: Standard is 'Circa Sports' official definitions at the time of settlement,' but the content of those definitions is not in the supplied text.
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Attach the current Circa Sports official contest-week definitions so the standard's content is verifiable.
• Corrections “If Circa Sports issues any correction within forty-eight (48) hours”
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Reference the audit-period rules in Circa Sports' official rules so the post-48-hour disregard standard is fully specified.
• Absence of Official Results “ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome of a Contract”
  • Independent Verification — Absent: Rests on ProphetX's own subjective assessment ('cannot reasonably determine'), not an external, receivable evidentiary item.
  • Suitable Method — Absent: A 'reasonable efforts/determination' standard is not a checkable procedure capable of objectively establishing inability to determine outcome.
  • Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold defines what counts as 'cannot reasonably determine'; it is undefined and elastic.
  • Conclusive Link — Absent: no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
  • Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Limited to 'affected Contracts,' but which Contracts are affected is left to the same undefined judgment.
  • Relevant Timeline — Partial: No specific time window is given for when this determination must be made.
  What would close it: Replace subjective 'cannot reasonably determine' with an objective trigger, e.g., no result from either named source within X days of contest end.
• Last Trading Date/Time “Trading closes when the outcome of the Contract becomes determinable”
  • Suitable Method — Partial: Determinability is inferred from published data, but the judgment of when it becomes 'determinable' is not itself a fixed test.
  • Defined Benchmark — Partial: 'Becomes determinable' is described functionally (contest ends early, or one entry remains with weeks left) but has no fixed numeric/objective trigger beyond these examples.
  • Conclusive Link — Partial: The named scenarios plausibly establish determinability, but the open-ended 'becomes determinable' language leaves room for judgment calls.
  What would close it: Specify a concrete, mechanical rule (e.g., exact data condition) for when the outcome is deemed 'determinable.'

Every provision read

Read 31 October 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written.

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