Will Team Vitality win the PGL CS2 Major Singapore 2026?
ProphetX LLC · received by the CFTC 21 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)
Summary
Warrant Check read 7 operative provisions in this filing. Across them, 29 of 42 checks are present, 9 partial and 4 absent. 3 provisions have every check present. 1 rule on who may trade is not a settlement term and is left out.
29 present9 partial4 absentWhat the wording addresses
- Tournament Winner Settlement (Yes/No resolution) — every check present.
“resolves to "Yes" if ... Source records Team Vitality as the champion” - Team Identity / Successor Determination: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“PGL recognizes the lineup as the same team or its natural successor” - Tournament Cancellation / Grand Final Delay Void — every check present.
“Grand Final has not begun within forty-eight (48) hours of its originally scheduled start” - Rule Changes - No Adjustment: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“regardless of any change the governing body makes to its rules, format, scoring” - Secondary Source Use / Conflict Resolution: Comprehensive Coverage.
“Exchange will consult the secondary source only if the primary ... has not published” - Last Trading Date / Trading Close Determination — every check present.
“Trading closes when the Grand Final ... is officially concluded”
What the wording leaves open
- Absence of Official Results / Void “ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome ... all orders ... void”
- Independent Verification — Absent: The trigger is the Exchange's own inability to 'reasonably determine' the outcome - a party's internal judgment, not third-party-receivable evidence.
- Suitable Method — Absent: No defined procedure exists to test 'reasonable determination'; it is an unexaminable internal conclusion, not a checkable method.
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold is given for what counts as 'cannot reasonably determine' - entirely undefined/elastic.
- Conclusive Link — Absent: no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
- Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Applies to 'the affected Contracts', matching the specific contract, but since no procedure is defined, coverage of what was actually checked is unclear.
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: Tied loosely to a prior 'reasonable time' wait for publication; no defined cutoff, so time coverage is loose.
- Team Identity / Successor Determination “PGL recognizes the lineup as the same team or its natural successor”
- Defined Benchmark — Partial: Standard is 'recognizes ... as the same team or its natural successor' - named but the 'natural successor' concept is elastic/undefined.
- Rule Changes - No Adjustment “regardless of any change the governing body makes to its rules, format, scoring”
- Defined Benchmark — Partial: Standard is 'the result the governing body recognizes' under rules that are referenced (PGL/Valve rules) but not set out in the text, making the threshold's content externally dependent.
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
- Secondary Source Use / Conflict Resolution “Exchange will consult the secondary source only if the primary ... has not published”
- Independent Verification — Partial: Secondary source (Liquipedia) is operated by Team Liquid, which owns a competing CS2 team - a disclosed conflict of interest; verification against the 'official broadcast record' is named but that record and verifier are not specified.
- Suitable Method — Partial: Cross-checking against a broadcast record can bear on accuracy, but the verification procedure (who verifies, how) is not specified, limiting the certainty the clause asserts.
- Defined Benchmark — Partial: Trigger is 'has not published ... within a reasonable time' - a named concept but with no defined duration, making it elastic.
- Conclusive Link — Partial: Even if 'reasonable time' has passed, the entailment that secondary-source use is then appropriate rests on an undefined standard, weakening the link.
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: The 'reasonable time' window is not bounded by a specific duration, so the time the evidence must cover is loosely defined.
Every provision read
Tournament Winner Settlement (Yes/No resolution)
“resolves to "Yes" if ... Source records Team Vitality as the champion”
Determination: The Settlement Reference Source (PGL) officially records Team Vitality as champion of the Major · Consequence: Yes-side holders paid $1.00; No-side holders paid nothing
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is PGL's official published event result, a named independent third-party source, not a party's own say-so.
Present Suitable Method. An official champion declaration by the organizing body is exactly the kind of record that can establish who won; claim strength matches evidence strength.
Present Defined Benchmark. Threshold is PGL's official declaration of champion as published on its event page - a specific, named standard.
Present Conclusive Link. Being recorded as champion by PGL directly establishes the claimed proposition (official champion status).
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Single named event, single named competitor - coverage matches the claim exactly, no sampling issue.
Present Relevant Timeline. Settlement occurs after close of trading once the Grand Final result is available, matching the obligation period.
Absence of Official Results / Void
“ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome ... all orders ... void”
Determination: ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome from the official sources · Consequence: All orders void and collateral returned
Absent Independent Verification. The trigger is the Exchange's own inability to 'reasonably determine' the outcome - a party's internal judgment, not third-party-receivable evidence.
Absent Suitable Method. No defined procedure exists to test 'reasonable determination'; it is an unexaminable internal conclusion, not a checkable method.
Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold is given for what counts as 'cannot reasonably determine' - entirely undefined/elastic.
Absent Conclusive Link. no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
Partial Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to 'the affected Contracts', matching the specific contract, but since no procedure is defined, coverage of what was actually checked is unclear.
Partial Relevant Timeline. Tied loosely to a prior 'reasonable time' wait for publication; no defined cutoff, so time coverage is loose.
Team Identity / Successor Determination
“PGL recognizes the lineup as the same team or its natural successor”
Determination: PGL recognizes the transferred/rebranded lineup as the same team or its natural successor · Consequence: The Contract continues to follow that team (or does not, if treated as distinct)
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is PGL's official recognition/classification of the entry, a third-party organizer determination.
Present Suitable Method. PGL's recognition is precisely the authority the clause relies on to establish team-identity continuity.
Partial Defined Benchmark. Standard is 'recognizes ... as the same team or its natural successor' - named but the 'natural successor' concept is elastic/undefined.
Present Conclusive Link. If PGL recognizes continuity, the clause's consequence (Contract follows the team) directly follows.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Determination is about the specific named team/lineup, matching the claim's scope.
Present Relevant Timeline. Applies continuously whenever a roster/brand change occurs during the Contract's life, matching the obligation period.
Tournament Cancellation / Grand Final Delay Void
“Grand Final has not begun within forty-eight (48) hours of its originally scheduled start”
Determination: The tournament is cancelled before champion declared, or the Grand Final has not begun within 48 hours of its scheduled start · Consequence: All orders on affected Contracts void; collateral returned
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is the objective, publicly observable fact of cancellation or elapsed scheduled time, verifiable against the official schedule.
Present Suitable Method. A simple factual/time-based check can establish cancellation or elapsed time at the certainty the clause requires.
Present Defined Benchmark. A specific, named 48-hour threshold from the originally scheduled start time is given.
Present Conclusive Link. Passage of the 48-hour window without the Grand Final starting directly satisfies the void condition as defined.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to 'the affected Contracts' tied to this specific tournament/Grand Final, matching the claim's population.
Present Relevant Timeline. The 48-hour window is an explicit, bounded time period matching the obligation being tested.
Rule Changes - No Adjustment
“regardless of any change the governing body makes to its rules, format, scoring”
Determination: The result PGL recognizes under its (possibly changed) rules/format is the governing result · Consequence: No voiding or adjustment of the Contract due to rule changes
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is PGL's published recognized result, a third-party record, though the underlying rules governing that recognition are not supplied.
Present Suitable Method. Same mechanism as the primary settlement determination; an official governing-body result can establish this claim.
Partial Defined Benchmark. Standard is 'the result the governing body recognizes' under rules that are referenced (PGL/Valve rules) but not set out in the text, making the threshold's content externally dependent.
Present Conclusive Link. If PGL recognizes a result under its (changed) rules, that directly satisfies the no-adjustment consequence as stated.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to the same single event/competitor the Contract covers.
Present Relevant Timeline. Covers the life of the Contract through to final settlement, matching the obligation period.
Secondary Source Use / Conflict Resolution
“Exchange will consult the secondary source only if the primary ... has not published”
Determination: The primary source (PGL) has not published the official result within a reasonable time, justifying use of the secondary source (Liquipedia), verified against the broadcast record · Consequence: Secondary source may be used for settlement; in conflict, primary source governs
Partial Independent Verification. Secondary source (Liquipedia) is operated by Team Liquid, which owns a competing CS2 team - a disclosed conflict of interest; verification against the 'official broadcast record' is named but that record and verifier are not specified.
Partial Suitable Method. Cross-checking against a broadcast record can bear on accuracy, but the verification procedure (who verifies, how) is not specified, limiting the certainty the clause asserts.
Partial Defined Benchmark. Trigger is 'has not published ... within a reasonable time' - a named concept but with no defined duration, making it elastic.
Partial Conclusive Link. Even if 'reasonable time' has passed, the entailment that secondary-source use is then appropriate rests on an undefined standard, weakening the link.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to the specific Contract's outcome determination, matching the claim's population.
Partial Relevant Timeline. The 'reasonable time' window is not bounded by a specific duration, so the time the evidence must cover is loosely defined.
Last Trading Date / Trading Close Determination
“Trading closes when the Grand Final ... is officially concluded”
Determination: The Grand Final is officially concluded and its result is reflected by the Settlement Reference Source (or an earlier elimination/withdrawal/disqualification is officially recorded) · Consequence: Trading closes; no new positions may be opened
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is the official conclusion as reflected by the Settlement Reference Source, a named third-party publication.
Present Suitable Method. Observing publication of the official conclusion/elimination is adequate to establish the closing trigger at the certainty asserted.
Present Defined Benchmark. Standard is the Grand Final being 'officially concluded' and reflected, or PGL officially recording elimination/withdrawal/disqualification - clearly named events.
Present Conclusive Link. Occurrence of the named official event directly establishes that trading should close.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to the specific Contract/team at issue, matching the claim's scope.
Present Relevant Timeline. Trigger is tied to the real-time occurrence of the event, matching the obligation's operative period.
Read 31 October 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written.