Will England win the first One Day International between England and Pakistan on May 15, 2027?

Railbird Exchange, LLC · received by the CFTC 21 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)

What the wording addresses

• Payout Criterion (Official Result): Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “resolves YES if [entity] is declared the winner of [event]”
• Abandoned Match – No Official Result: Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “Resolves to the last fair market price, as determined by the Exchange”
• Tie – No Winner Determined: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “Each team's Contract resolves at $0.50”
• Source Agency Reporting Delay: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “does not report the relevant result within 48 hours”
• Mutually Exclusive Set Settlement — every check present.
  “aggregate payout across the Mutually Exclusive Set equals the Contract Size”
• Position Accountability Reporting: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “provide the Exchange with information regarding the nature”
• Unconditionally Determined Outcome: Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “settles based on that determination regardless of any subsequent event”
• Incorrect Listed Schedule — every check present.
  “Settles based on the actual event as scheduled”

What the wording leaves open

• Payout Criterion (Official Result) “resolves YES if [entity] is declared the winner of [event]”
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Attach or incorporate the ICC's official playing conditions and DLS methodology referenced as defining 'official result'.
• Abandoned Match – No Official Result “Resolves to the last fair market price, as determined by the Exchange”
  • Independent Verification — Partial: Absence of an ICC report is checkable, but the resulting 'last fair market price' is the Exchange's own undefined determination, not third-party evidence.
  • Suitable Method — Partial: Non-reporting can establish 'no official result' but cannot itself establish what the settlement price should be.
  • Defined Benchmark — Partial: Completion Window is a named time threshold, but 'last fair market price' has no defined calculation method.
  • Conclusive Link — Partial: Meeting the no-result/time condition establishes abandonment but does not entail any specific, ascertainable price.
  What would close it: Define an objective methodology or external reference point for 'last fair market price' rather than unexplained Exchange discretion.
• Tie – No Winner Determined “Each team's Contract resolves at $0.50”
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Attach ICC playing conditions defining tie-break procedures (super over/bowl-off) referenced here.
• Clearly Erroneous Result Referral “the matter is referred to the Market Outcome Review Process”
  • Independent Verification — Absent: Trigger is the Exchange's own determination ('if the Exchange determines'), not a named external evidentiary source.
  • Suitable Method — Absent: 'Clearly erroneous' has no defined test or procedure to establish it at any level of certainty.
  • Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold or spec is named for what counts as 'clearly erroneous'.
  • Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Applies to 'a reported result' for this contract, but no defined population/criteria for review triggers.
  • Relevant Timeline — Partial: No time bound given for when this determination must be made relative to settlement.
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Define objective criteria/comparator data for 'clearly erroneous' and attach the Rule 7.1 procedure text.
• Source Agency Reporting Delay “does not report the relevant result within 48 hours”
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Attach Rule 7.1 procedure and define the methodology for any resulting 'last fair market price'.
• Position Accountability Reporting “provide the Exchange with information regarding the nature”
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Attach Rule 5.17 for the full position accountability procedures referenced as 'more detail'.
• Unconditionally Determined Outcome “settles based on that determination regardless of any subsequent event”
  • Independent Verification — Partial: No named external evidence/procedure for verifying 'certainty'; appears to rest on an evaluative judgment.
  • Suitable Method — Partial: The conceptual test (certainty regardless of further activity) lacks a concrete applied procedure.
  • Defined Benchmark — Partial: A definition is given but it is conceptual/elastic rather than a fixed, checkable threshold.
  • Conclusive Link — Partial: If genuinely met the definition would entail settlement, but looseness of the standard weakens confidence.
  What would close it: Provide an objective decision procedure or criteria for determining when a result is 'Unconditionally Determined'.

Every provision read

Read 3 November 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written. Not assessed: Conclusive Link cannot be judged where no Defined Benchmark is named; that follows from the missing benchmark and is not a separate gap.

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