Will England win the first Twenty20 International between England and New Zealand on September 7, 2027?

Railbird Exchange, LLC · received by the CFTC 21 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)

What the wording addresses

• Payout Criterion / Official Result determination — every check present.
  “resolves YES if [entity] is declared the winner of [event]”
• Match Abandoned - No Official Result: Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “resolves to the last fair market price, as determined by the Exchange”
• Tie - No Winner Determined: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “each team's Contract resolves at $0.50”
• Source Agency 48-hour non-report referral: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “does not report the relevant result within 48 hours of the Conclusion”
• Mutually Exclusive Set Aggregate Payout — every check present.
  “aggregate payout across all Contracts in a Mutually Exclusive Set shall equal”
• Position Accountability Reporting — every check present.
  “holds or controls aggregate positions at or above the applicable accountability level”
• Incorrect Listed Schedule — every check present.
  “settles based on the actual [event] as scheduled by the governing body”
• Unconditionally Determined Early Settlement: Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
  “if the outcome of a Contract is Unconditionally Determined at any point”

What the wording leaves open

• Match Abandoned - No Official Result “resolves to the last fair market price, as determined by the Exchange”
  • Independent Verification — Partial: Absence of an ICC report is checkable, but the 'last fair market price' value itself rests on Exchange determination with no named methodology or data source.
  • Suitable Method — Partial: Procedure can establish that no official result was issued, but cannot by itself establish a specific, verifiable settlement price.
  • Defined Benchmark — Partial: 'Last fair market price as determined by the Exchange' is named but undefined (no formula, time window, or data source).
  • Conclusive Link — Partial: Because the standard is loosely defined, satisfying it does not reliably establish a specific, verifiable settlement value.
  What would close it: Specify an objective methodology/source (e.g., last executed trade timestamp, defined order-book snapshot) for determining the last fair market price.
• Tie - No Winner Determined “each team's Contract resolves at $0.50”
  • Defined Benchmark — Partial: 'No winner determined under official playing conditions' is named but what counts if a tiebreaker is itself interrupted is not detailed.
• Source Agency 48-hour non-report referral “does not report the relevant result within 48 hours of the Conclusion”
  • Conclusive Link — Partial: Meeting the 48-hour non-report condition triggers referral, but the ultimate resolution to last fair market price is only discretionary ('may'), weakening entailment of the full consequence.
  What would close it: Clarify whether referral automatically produces a last-fair-market-price resolution or specify the criteria governing the Exchange's discretion.
• Clearly Erroneous Result Referral “the Exchange determines that a reported result is clearly erroneous”
  • Independent Verification — Absent: Rests entirely on the Exchange's own subjective determination; no named objective evidence or third-party check.
  • Suitable Method — Absent: No procedure is specified for establishing error beyond the Exchange's own judgment.
  • Defined Benchmark — Absent: 'Clearly erroneous' is undefined - no threshold or criteria given.
  • Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Presumably limited to the reported result of this match, but not explicitly scoped.
  • Relevant Timeline — Partial: Timing of this determination (e.g., relative to Expiration) is not specified.
  What would close it: Define objective criteria (e.g., discrepancy with independently verifiable statistics) or require independent verification for an 'erroneous' finding.
• Unconditionally Determined Early Settlement “if the outcome of a Contract is Unconditionally Determined at any point”
  • Independent Verification — Absent: No named evidence source or determining party/procedure is given for reaching an 'Unconditionally Determined' conclusion.
  • Suitable Method — Absent: A definition is supplied but no operational procedure is specified capable of establishing certainty at the asserted strength.
  • Defined Benchmark — Partial: A conceptual definition ('certainty regardless of further activity') is given but functions as a concept, not an operational threshold or test.
  • Conclusive Link — Partial: If the definition could be objectively verified it would establish the claim, but no verification method is specified.
  What would close it: Specify who determines 'Unconditionally Determined' status and the objective evidence/procedure (e.g., mathematical elimination based on official statistics) used.
• Market Outcome Review for Undetermined Expiration Value “the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to Rule 7.1”
  • Independent Verification — Absent: The operative procedure (Rule 7.1) is referenced but its content is not included in the supplied text.
  • Suitable Method — Absent: Cannot assess whether the referenced procedure can establish the claim, since its content is not supplied.
  • Defined Benchmark — Absent: No standard is given in the supplied text; it is deferred entirely to Rule 7.1, not provided.
  • Comprehensive Coverage — Absent: Coverage of the review process (which positions/outcomes it reaches) is not specified in the supplied text.
  • Relevant Timeline — Partial: Triggered 'on the Expiration Date' but the duration/timing of the review procedure itself is not specified here.
  • Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
  What would close it: Include the text of Rule 7.1 (Market Outcome Review Process) or incorporate its determination standards directly into this document.

Every provision read

Read 3 November 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written. Not assessed: Conclusive Link cannot be judged where no Defined Benchmark is named; that follows from the missing benchmark and is not a separate gap.

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