Will CDNA/Nadex/OG.com’s event contract notional traded volume exceed $<N> in <Month>?
ProphetX LLC · received by the CFTC 23 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)
Summary
Warrant Check read 5 operative provisions in this filing. Across them, 17 of 30 checks are present, 9 partial and 4 absent. 2 provisions have every check present. 1 rule on who may trade is not a settlement term and is left out.
17 present9 partial4 absentWhat the wording addresses
- Settlement Criteria (Yes/No determination) — every check present.
“Resolves to "Yes" if the Reference Volume exceeds” - Change in Publication - void on discontinuation: Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“Market Outcome has not been unequivocally determined, all orders...are void” - Corrections and Restatements - finality — every check present.
“Corrections published after the Determination Cutoff...do not affect settlement” - §40.2(d)(1) class certification conditions: Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage.
“each swap satisfies conditions (i) through (iv)”
What the wording leaves open
- Change in Publication - void on discontinuation “Market Outcome has not been unequivocally determined, all orders...are void”
- Independent Verification — Partial: Tied to objective unavailability of published data, but 'unequivocally determined' is the Exchange's own characterization with no named external confirmation.
- Suitable Method — Partial: Checking for a successor publication bears on the claim, but no procedure operationalizes what counts as 'unequivocal' determination.
- Defined Benchmark — Partial: 'Materially changes' and 'unequivocally determined' are named but undefined, elastic standards.
- Conclusive Link — Partial: Because the standard is loose, satisfying it only loosely establishes the claimed impossibility of determination.
- Absence of Data - void “ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome...orders...are void”
- Independent Verification — Absent: Rests on ProphetX's own subjective 'reasonable' determination, not a named third-party-receivable evidence source.
- Suitable Method — Absent: A 'reasonable efforts/determination' standard is not a checkable procedure capable of establishing the claim at any defined level of certainty.
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold or test is named for when determination becomes unreasonable/impossible.
- Conclusive Link — Absent: no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
- Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Presumably applies once all listed/alternative sources are exhausted, but the population of sources checked before invoking this is not bounded.
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: No explicit time bound is given for when this determination must be made relative to the Determination Cutoff.
- §40.2(d)(1) class certification conditions “each swap satisfies conditions (i) through (iv)”
- Independent Verification — Partial: Evidence is the Exchange's own comparative analysis against the Referenced Contract's terms; no independent third-party confirms the asserted identity, though named contract terms could in principle be checked.
- Suitable Method — Partial: Comparing stated contract terms can show formal sameness, but the Exchange's own characterization of 'identical' is not independently verified.
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: Identity is assessed only as of the filing date; no mechanism confirms methodology stays identical for future months covered by the class.
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
Every provision read
Settlement Criteria (Yes/No determination)
“Resolves to "Yes" if the Reference Volume exceeds”
Determination: The Reference Volume, computed via the Settlement Reference Source procedure, exceeds the stated threshold <N> for the month. · Consequence: The Contract settles "Yes" (payout $1.00) or "No" (payout $0) to position holders.
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is Nadex's own published Daily Bulletin / Time and Sales reports, a third-party published, obtainable record.
Present Suitable Method. Summing a published Volume column to a dollar figure directly measures the exact comparator the claim asserts (exceeds/does not exceed N).
Present Defined Benchmark. Numeric threshold <N> and an exact greater-than/less-than-or-equal comparator are named.
Present Conclusive Link. Exceeding N as computed is precisely the condition the claim asserts; no gap between standard and claim.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers every fully collateralized Nadex transaction regardless of submitting platform, matching the claimed population (all Nadex fully collateralized volume).
Present Relevant Timeline. Reference Period is defined as the trade dates of the specified month, matching the obligation period exactly.
Change in Publication - void on discontinuation
“Market Outcome has not been unequivocally determined, all orders...are void”
Determination: Nadex has stopped/materially changed its fully collateralized reporting and no successor source renders the outcome unequivocally determinable. · Consequence: All orders on the Contract are voided and collateral is returned.
Partial Independent Verification. Tied to objective unavailability of published data, but 'unequivocally determined' is the Exchange's own characterization with no named external confirmation.
Partial Suitable Method. Checking for a successor publication bears on the claim, but no procedure operationalizes what counts as 'unequivocal' determination.
Partial Defined Benchmark. 'Materially changes' and 'unequivocally determined' are named but undefined, elastic standards.
Partial Conclusive Link. Because the standard is loose, satisfying it only loosely establishes the claimed impossibility of determination.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to the same Nadex fully collateralized reporting the claim concerns.
Present Relevant Timeline. Applies through the same Reference Period/Determination Cutoffwindow as the underlying settlement obligation.
Absence of Data - void
“ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the outcome...orders...are void”
Determination: ProphetX cannot reasonably determine the Contract's outcome from the listed or alternative sources. · Consequence: All orders on the Contract are voided and collateral returned.
Absent Independent Verification. Rests on ProphetX's own subjective 'reasonable' determination, not a named third-party-receivable evidence source.
Absent Suitable Method. A 'reasonable efforts/determination' standard is not a checkable procedure capable of establishing the claim at any defined level of certainty.
Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold or test is named for when determination becomes unreasonable/impossible.
Absent Conclusive Link. no named standard - entailment cannot be assessed
Partial Comprehensive Coverage. Presumably applies once all listed/alternative sources are exhausted, but the population of sources checked before invoking this is not bounded.
Partial Relevant Timeline. No explicit time bound is given for when this determination must be made relative to the Determination Cutoff.
Corrections and Restatements - finality
“Corrections published after the Determination Cutoff...do not affect settlement”
Determination: The Reference Volume as computed from data published by the fixed Determination Cutoffis the operative settlement figure. · Consequence: Settlement is final at that computed value; no Contract is resettled regardless of later corrections.
Present Independent Verification. Evidence is the published data as it stood at a fixed, externally verifiable cutofftimestamp.
Present Suitable Method. A fixed-time snapshot of published data can establish the exact figure the claim asserts as of that moment.
Present Defined Benchmark. Named cutoff: 5:00 p.m. ET on the second business day after the Reference Period ends.
Present Conclusive Link. Data as of that cutoffis defined as the final figure, directly matching the finality claim.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies specifically to the Reference Volume computed for the stated Reference Period, matching claim scope.
Present Relevant Timeline. The obligation is explicitly defined as a point-in-time determination, and the evidence covers exactly that point.
§40.2(d)(1) class certification conditions
“each swap satisfies conditions (i) through (iv)”
Determination: Each Contract in the class is identical in excluded-commodity basis, pricing source/formula/procedure/methodology, identity with the Referenced Contract, and currency. · Consequence: The class may be certified and listed together under a single §40.2(d) submission rather than requiring separate §40.2(a) certifications.
Partial Independent Verification. Evidence is the Exchange's own comparative analysis against the Referenced Contract's terms; no independent third-party confirms the asserted identity, though named contract terms could in principle be checked.
Partial Suitable Method. Comparing stated contract terms can show formal sameness, but the Exchange's own characterization of 'identical' is not independently verified.
Present Defined Benchmark. The four enumerated regulatory conditions (i)-(iv) under Reg 40.2(d)(1) are the named standard.
Present Conclusive Link. If source, formula, procedure, methodology and currency are genuinely identical to the Referenced Contract as described, that satisfies the named regulatory conditions.
Present Comprehensive Coverage. The comparison addresses all the defining terms (source, formula, procedure, methodology, currency) relevant to the class claim.
Partial Relevant Timeline. Identity is assessed only as of the filing date; no mechanism confirms methodology stays identical for future months covered by the class.
Read 31 October 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written.