Will Tyson Fury win the professional boxing match between Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua on December 11, 2026?

Railbird Exchange, LLC · received by the CFTC 28 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)

Summary

Warrant Check read 9 operative provisions in this filing. Across them, 41 of 54 checks are present, 5 partial and 6 absent. 3 provisions have every check present. 1 rule on who may trade is not a settlement term and is left out.

41 present5 partial6 absent2 not assessed

Staff-letter lens

The payout rule here is “Payout Criterion - winner determination”: the rule that says what makes the contract pay Yes or No. The other 8 rules are fallback rules: what happens if the event is cancelled or delayed, the data goes missing, or the result is challenged.

Topic the staff letters raise	Payout rule	Fallback rules
Settlement source identified	Addressed	5 of 8 addressed
Settlement method described	Addressed	5 of 8 addressed
Covers every case it applies to	Addressed	7 of 8 addressed
Timing set	Addressed	6 of 8 addressed
Terms in the public filing	Kept elsewhere	5 of 8 in the filing

How the lens works and what it does not read

What the wording addresses

Payout Criterion - winner determination: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“resolves YES if [entity] is declared the winner”
Official Result unavailable within 48 hours: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“If the Official Result is not available within 48 hours”
Clearly erroneous result referral: Comprehensive Coverage.
“If the Exchange determines that a reported result is clearly erroneous”
Draw settlement provision — every check present.
“no Draw Contract is listed and [event] ends in a draw”
Boxer Replacement contingency: Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“Either boxer in the bout is replaced after the Contract is listed”
Position accountability reporting: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“A Member who holds or controls aggregate positions at or above”
Mutually Exclusive Set aggregate payout — every check present.
“No more than one Contract in a Mutually Exclusive Set may resolve”
Completion Window / bout not concluded — every check present.
“does not Conclude within the Completion Window”

What the wording leaves open

Payout Criterion - winner determination “resolves YES if [entity] is declared the winner”
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Attach or incorporate the referenced Chapter 13 of the DKeX Rulebook and Rule 6.3 settlement provisions so the full settlement mechanics are verifiable.
Official Result unavailable within 48 hours “If the Official Result is not available within 48 hours”
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Include the text of Rule 7.1 (Market Outcome Review Process) so the referral mechanism and its evidentiary standards can be assessed.
Clearly erroneous result referral “If the Exchange determines that a reported result is clearly erroneous”
- Independent Verification — Absent: Rests solely on the Exchange's own determination with no named external evidence, certificate, or verification procedure.
- Suitable Method — Absent: No procedure is specified for assessing 'clearly erroneous'; it is a subjective judgment call, not a checkable method.
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold or definition of 'clearly erroneous' is given.
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: No deadline is given for when this determination must be made relative to Expiration.
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Define 'clearly erroneous' with objective criteria and incorporate Rule 7.1's review standard and timeline.
Boxer Replacement contingency “Either boxer in the bout is replaced after the Contract is listed”
- Independent Verification — Partial: No specific document, announcement source, or official record is named for confirming a replacement; presumably public/promoter announcements but unspecified.
- Suitable Method — Partial: No defined procedure is given for verifying replacement, though the fact is likely publicly observable.
What would close it: Name the official source (e.g., promoter or commission announcement) that will be used to confirm a boxer replacement.
Unconditionally Determined override “if the outcome of a Contract is Unconditionally Determined at any point”
- Independent Verification — Absent: No named evidence or determiner is specified for reaching this state; it is a conclusory legal/factual label without a receivable proof source.
- Suitable Method — Absent: No procedure is given to establish certainty 'regardless of any further bout activity'; the claim's strength exceeds any described method.
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold or test is named beyond the circular definition of the term itself.
- Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Applies to 'the Contract' generally but the triggering population of facts is undefined.
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: 'At any point' is open-ended with no bounded window specified.
What would close it: Define objective conditions and a named determiner/procedure for when a Contract outcome becomes 'Unconditionally Determined'.
Position accountability reporting “A Member who holds or controls aggregate positions at or above”
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Include Rule 5.17 text to confirm the measurement and notice procedure for accountability-level breaches.

Every provision read

Payout Criterion - winner determination

“resolves YES if [entity] is declared the winner”

Determination: the designated boxer is declared the winner of the bout in the Official Result · Consequence: Contract resolves YES (or NO) and Settlement Value is paid to the corresponding position holders

Present Independent Verification. Evidence is the Official Result announced in the ring and published by the British Boxing Board of Control, obtainable via its own publications or BoxRec - a named neutral third-party record.

Present Suitable Method. An official sanctioning body's in-ring/published result is designed to establish exactly who won by a closed list of methods, matching the claim's strength.

Present Defined Benchmark. Standard is the Official Result applying one of the enumerated win methods (KO, TKO, decision, technical decision, disqualification).

Present Conclusive Link. Being declared winner in the Official Result is definitionally the claim asserted, so meeting it establishes the claim.

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Coverage is the single bout being settled, matching the claim's scope exactly.

Present Relevant Timeline. Result is taken at conclusion of the bout, matching the point-in-time nature of the claim.

Official Result unavailable within 48 hours

“If the Official Result is not available within 48 hours”

Determination: the Official Result has not been published within 48 hours of the Conclusion of the event · Consequence: Contract is referred to Market Outcome Review and may resolve to the last fair market price

Present Independent Verification. Non-publication by the named Source Agency within a fixed window is an objectively checkable fact.

Present Suitable Method. Checking whether a publication exists by a deadline is a simple, verifiable procedure matching the claim's strength.

Present Defined Benchmark. 48 hours from Conclusion of the event is a clear, named threshold.

Present Conclusive Link. Passage of 48 hours without publication directly establishes unavailability.

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers the single event's result, matching claim scope.

Present Relevant Timeline. Clause is itself a time-bound trigger that matches the obligation period.

Clearly erroneous result referral

“If the Exchange determines that a reported result is clearly erroneous”

Determination: the Exchange has determined a reported result is clearly erroneous · Consequence: the matter is referred to the Market Outcome Review Process

Absent Independent Verification. Rests solely on the Exchange's own determination with no named external evidence, certificate, or verification procedure.

Absent Suitable Method. No procedure is specified for assessing 'clearly erroneous'; it is a subjective judgment call, not a checkable method.

Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold or definition of 'clearly erroneous' is given.

Not assessed Conclusive Link. Not assessed: no Defined Benchmark is named, so whether meeting it would settle the question cannot be judged.

Present Comprehensive Coverage. The determination concerns the single reported result of the bout, matching scope.

Partial Relevant Timeline. No deadline is given for when this determination must be made relative to Expiration.

Draw settlement provision

“no Draw Contract is listed and [event] ends in a draw”

Determination: the bout ends in a draw of any kind as reflected in the Official Result · Consequence: each boxer's Contract resolves to $0.50, one-half of the Contract Size

Present Independent Verification. Relies on the same Official Result published by the named Source Agency as the primary win determination.

Present Suitable Method. A sanctioning body's declaration of a draw is capable of establishing that fact at the asserted certainty.

Present Defined Benchmark. Standard is the Official Result declaring 'a draw of any kind'.

Present Conclusive Link. An official draw declaration directly establishes the draw claim.

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers the single bout, matching claim scope.

Present Relevant Timeline. Determined at conclusion of the bout, matching the point-in-time claim.

Boxer Replacement contingency

“Either boxer in the bout is replaced after the Contract is listed”

Determination: a boxer in the bout has been replaced after the Contract was listed · Consequence: Contract resolves to the last fair market price as determined by the Exchange

Partial Independent Verification. No specific document, announcement source, or official record is named for confirming a replacement; presumably public/promoter announcements but unspecified.

Partial Suitable Method. No defined procedure is given for verifying replacement, though the fact is likely publicly observable.

Present Defined Benchmark. The triggering condition - a boxer being replaced - is a clear, bright-line event.

Present Conclusive Link. If a boxer is in fact replaced, that directly satisfies the stated condition.

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers the single bout and its two designated boxers, matching scope.

Present Relevant Timeline. Window is defined as 'after the Contract is listed', matching the relevant period.

Unconditionally Determined override

“if the outcome of a Contract is Unconditionally Determined at any point”

Determination: the Contract's outcome is Unconditionally Determined regardless of further bout activity · Consequence: Contract settles immediately on that determination regardless of subsequent events

Absent Independent Verification. No named evidence or determiner is specified for reaching this state; it is a conclusory legal/factual label without a receivable proof source.

Absent Suitable Method. No procedure is given to establish certainty 'regardless of any further bout activity'; the claim's strength exceeds any described method.

Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold or test is named beyond the circular definition of the term itself.

Not assessed Conclusive Link. Not assessed: no Defined Benchmark is named, so whether meeting it would settle the question cannot be judged.

Partial Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to 'the Contract' generally but the triggering population of facts is undefined.

Partial Relevant Timeline. 'At any point' is open-ended with no bounded window specified.

Position accountability reporting

“A Member who holds or controls aggregate positions at or above”

Determination: a Member's aggregate position is at or above the Position Accountability Level · Consequence: Member must provide position/strategy information and accept Exchange instruction not to further increase or decrease the position

Present Independent Verification. Position size is measured from the Exchange's own trading/clearing records, a neutral third-party data source.

Present Suitable Method. Position counts are precisely and continuously measurable by the Exchange's system, matching the claim's precision.

Present Defined Benchmark. 125,000 contracts is a named numeric Position Accountability Level.

Present Conclusive Link. Exceeding the named level directly triggers the reporting/consent obligation as stated.

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Measured against the Member's own aggregate position, matching the claim.

Present Relevant Timeline. Monitored on an intraday or end-of-day basis, matching the continuous nature of the obligation.

Mutually Exclusive Set aggregate payout

“No more than one Contract in a Mutually Exclusive Set may resolve”

Determination: only one Contract in the designated set resolves to full YES, consistent with individual Official Result determinations · Consequence: remaining Contracts in the set are adjusted so aggregate payout equals the Contract Size

Present Independent Verification. Derived from the same Official Result evidence used for individual contract settlement.

Present Suitable Method. Aggregation logic follows mechanically once individual outcomes are established by the Official Result.

Present Defined Benchmark. Standard is that aggregate payout across the set must equal the Contract Size.

Present Conclusive Link. Enforcing the aggregate-equals-Contract-Size rule follows directly from the individual resolved outcomes.

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers exactly the Contracts in the defined Mutually Exclusive Set for the one bout.

Present Relevant Timeline. Applies at the same settlement time as the individual contract determinations.

Completion Window / bout not concluded

“does not Conclude within the Completion Window”

Determination: the event, once interrupted, has not Concluded within 48 hours of its start · Consequence: Contract resolves to the last fair market price unless Unconditionally Determined

Present Independent Verification. Relies on the same official record-keeping of bout status used for the Official Result, implicitly from the Source Agency.

Present Suitable Method. Timing of conclusion versus interruption is an objectively checkable fact matching the claim's strength.

Present Defined Benchmark. 48 hours from the start of the event is a clearly named threshold.

Present Conclusive Link. Failure to conclude within the window directly establishes the triggering condition.

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers the single bout's conclusion status, matching claim scope.

Present Relevant Timeline. The window itself is the time period being tested, matching the obligation exactly.

Read 3 November 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written. Not assessed: Conclusive Link cannot be judged where no Defined Benchmark is named; that follows from the missing benchmark and is not a separate gap.

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