Will Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen record a combined total of above 550.5 passing yards on November 26, 2026?

Railbird Exchange, LLC · received by the CFTC 30 October 2026 · the filing (PDF)

Summary

Warrant Check read 11 operative provisions in this filing. Across them, 50 of 66 checks are present, 8 partial and 6 absent. 4 provisions have every check present. 1 rule on who may trade is not a settlement term and is left out.

50 present8 partial6 absent2 not assessed

Staff-letter lens

The payout rule here is “Payout Criterion (YES/NO determination)”: the rule that says what makes the contract pay Yes or No. The other 10 rules are fallback rules: what happens if the event is cancelled or delayed, the data goes missing, or the result is challenged.

Topic the staff letters raise	Payout rule	Fallback rules
Settlement source identified	Addressed	7 of 10 addressed
Settlement method described	Addressed	6 of 10 addressed
Covers every case it applies to	Addressed	8 of 10 addressed
Timing set	Addressed	7 of 10 addressed
Terms in the public filing	In the filing	5 of 10 in the filing

How the lens works and what it does not read

What the wording addresses

Payout Criterion (YES/NO determination) — every check present.
“The Contract resolves YES if the observed value”
Source Agency / Official Result determination: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“the final (non - live, non - provisional) result”
Source Agency non-report within 48 hours: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“does not report the relevant result within 48 hours”
Participation determination: Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“played in at least one offensive, defensive, or special”
Unconditionally Determined early settlement — every check present.
“can be determined with certainty regardless of any further”
Mutually Exclusive Contracts aggregate payout: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage.
“aggregate payout across all Contracts in a Mutually Exclusive”
Statistic Corrected After Conclusion — every check present.
“governing body corrects or revises the Official Statistics after”
Venue Changed to Competing Team's Home Venue — every check present.
“The game is moved to the home venue of the opposing team”
Position Accountability Level: Independent Verification, Suitable Method, Defined Benchmark, Conclusive Link, Comprehensive Coverage, Relevant Timeline.
“exceed the applicable position limit on an intraday”

What the wording leaves open

Source Agency / Official Result determination “the final (non - live, non - provisional) result”
- Defined Benchmark — Partial: 'final (non-live, non-provisional)' is named but not further defined (no certification timestamp or process)
What would close it: Define an objective marker (e.g., NFL's official 'final' stat publication flag) for when a result becomes non-provisional
Clearly erroneous result referral “the Exchange determines that a reported result is clearly erroneous”
- Independent Verification — Absent: Rests on the Exchange's own subjective determination of 'clearly erroneous' with no named objective test
- Suitable Method — Absent: No procedure specified for establishing erroneousness; purely discretionary judgment
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No threshold or criteria defining 'clearly erroneous' is given
- Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Presumably the specific disputed result, but not stated with precision
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: No timeframe given for when this determination must be made
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Define an objective erroneousness test (e.g., discrepancy versus a secondary official source) and include the text of Rule 7.1
Source Agency non-report within 48 hours “does not report the relevant result within 48 hours”
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Include text of Rule 7.1 governing the subsequent Market Outcome Review Process
Participation determination “played in at least one offensive, defensive, or special”
- Independent Verification — Partial: Snap count data from an Exchange-vetted provider is named, but Exchange also 'owns and applies the logic' for exceptions/data gaps, reducing neutrality
- Suitable Method — Partial: Data can establish typical participation, but gap-resolution relies on Exchange discretion rather than an independent procedure
What would close it: Specify an objective, independently reviewable protocol for resolving data gaps rather than Exchange-owned discretion
No Data Record scenario -> Market Outcome Review “the player appears in [event] but records no entry”
- Independent Verification — Absent: Resolution is discretionary ('may be made') with the underlying Rule 7.1 process not included in the text
- Suitable Method — Absent: Undefined procedure; cannot assess whether it can establish Participation at the needed certainty
- Defined Benchmark — Absent: No standard specified for how ambiguity is resolved
- Comprehensive Coverage — Partial: Presumably limited to the ambiguous player/game but not stated precisely
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: No timeframe specified for completing this review
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Include the text of Rule 7.1 and define objective evidentiary standards for the Market Outcome Review Process
Mutually Exclusive Contracts aggregate payout “aggregate payout across all Contracts in a Mutually Exclusive”
- Relevant Timeline — Partial: No explicit timing/order mechanics for adjustment when components settle at different times (e.g., via early Unconditional Determination)
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Incorporate the Market Specifications defining the Mutually Exclusive Set and specify settlement-timing/order mechanics
Position Accountability Level “exceed the applicable position limit on an intraday”
- Relies on material referred to but not in the public filing.
What would close it: Attach Rule 5.17 and the applicable Market Specifications defining position limits referenced by this clause

Every provision read

Payout Criterion (YES/NO determination)

“The Contract resolves YES if the observed value”

Determination: combined passing yards of the two named players exceed 550.5 per Official Statistics · Consequence: Contract resolves YES (payout to longs) or NO (payout to shorts)

Present Independent Verification. Relies on NFL's official game statistics system, a named neutral third-party source

Present Suitable Method. Official box-score yardage tallies can establish a precise numeric claim at the asserted strength

Present Defined Benchmark. Explicit numeric threshold of 550.5 yards, condition 'above', is named

Present Conclusive Link. Exceeding the named threshold per Official Statistics directly establishes the YES claim

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Combined-total aggregation across exactly the two named players matches the claim

Present Relevant Timeline. Covers 'full game ... including all regulation periods and any overtime periods'

Source Agency / Official Result determination

“the final (non - live, non - provisional) result”

Determination: the NFL's reported game result/statistics are the final, non-provisional Official Result · Consequence: this Official Result/Official Statistics is used to determine the Expiration Value

Present Independent Verification. Named source: NFL Game Statistics & Information System, published at NFL.com

Present Suitable Method. Official league record-keeping is capable of establishing the fact of a final result

Partial Defined Benchmark. 'final (non-live, non-provisional)' is named but not further defined (no certification timestamp or process)

Present Conclusive Link. A result meeting the finality description is treated as determinative for settlement

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers the whole designated game's statistics

Present Relevant Timeline. Tied to Conclusion of the event and reporting thereafter

Clearly erroneous result referral

“the Exchange determines that a reported result is clearly erroneous”

Determination: a reported result is 'clearly erroneous' · Consequence: matter is referred to the Market Outcome Review Process under Rule 7.1

Absent Independent Verification. Rests on the Exchange's own subjective determination of 'clearly erroneous' with no named objective test

Absent Suitable Method. No procedure specified for establishing erroneousness; purely discretionary judgment

Absent Defined Benchmark. No threshold or criteria defining 'clearly erroneous' is given

Not assessed Conclusive Link. Not assessed: no Defined Benchmark is named, so whether meeting it would settle the question cannot be judged.

Partial Comprehensive Coverage. Presumably the specific disputed result, but not stated with precision

Partial Relevant Timeline. No timeframe given for when this determination must be made

Source Agency non-report within 48 hours

“does not report the relevant result within 48 hours”

Determination: the Source Agency has failed to report the result within 48 hours of Conclusion · Consequence: Contract is referred to Market Outcome Review Process and may resolve to last fair market price

Present Independent Verification. Objective, checkable fact: whether NFL published stats within a stated time window

Present Suitable Method. Straightforward factual/time determination

Present Defined Benchmark. 48-hour window from Conclusion is explicitly named

Present Conclusive Link. Failure to report within the window directly triggers the referral/alternate pricing

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to the specific designated event's result reporting

Present Relevant Timeline. Window matches the obligation it measures (post-Conclusion reporting)

Participation determination

“played in at least one offensive, defensive, or special”

Determination: a named player 'Participated' based on snap count data · Consequence: if not participated, Contract resolves to last fair market price; if participated, normal settlement applies

Partial Independent Verification. Snap count data from an Exchange-vetted provider is named, but Exchange also 'owns and applies the logic' for exceptions/data gaps, reducing neutrality

Partial Suitable Method. Data can establish typical participation, but gap-resolution relies on Exchange discretion rather than an independent procedure

Present Defined Benchmark. 'at least one ... play (snap)' is a defined threshold for Participation

Present Conclusive Link. Recording a qualifying snap under this definition establishes Participation

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Determination is made per named player, matching the claim's scope

Present Relevant Timeline. Covers the full designated event

No Data Record scenario -> Market Outcome Review

“the player appears in [event] but records no entry”

Determination: available data is insufficient to determine whether a player Participated · Consequence: determination of Participation and settlement may be made via Market Outcome Review Process under Rule 7.1

Absent Independent Verification. Resolution is discretionary ('may be made') with the underlying Rule 7.1 process not included in the text

Absent Suitable Method. Undefined procedure; cannot assess whether it can establish Participation at the needed certainty

Absent Defined Benchmark. No standard specified for how ambiguity is resolved

Not assessed Conclusive Link. Not assessed: no Defined Benchmark is named, so whether meeting it would settle the question cannot be judged.

Partial Comprehensive Coverage. Presumably limited to the ambiguous player/game but not stated precisely

Partial Relevant Timeline. No timeframe specified for completing this review

Unconditionally Determined early settlement

“can be determined with certainty regardless of any further”

Determination: the outcome is mathematically certain and cannot change regardless of further play · Consequence: Contract settles immediately on that determination, before Expiration

Present Independent Verification. Based on the same Official Statistics tally used for normal settlement, a neutral verifiable source

Present Suitable Method. Mathematical certainty follows logically where cumulative stats cannot decrease under scoring rules

Present Defined Benchmark. Condition defined: combined value exceeds count and cannot be reduced under governing rules

Present Conclusive Link. Satisfying the condition logically entails the final outcome

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Matches the combined-total claim scope over both named players

Present Relevant Timeline. Early determination is logically guaranteed to match the full-period outcome, not a premature substitute

Mutually Exclusive Contracts aggregate payout

“aggregate payout across all Contracts in a Mutually Exclusive”

Determination: the set of linked Contracts' payouts sum to the Contract Size · Consequence: remaining Contracts' payouts are adjusted to make the aggregate equal the Contract Size

Present Independent Verification. Based on each component Contract's official settlement outcome from Official Statistics

Present Suitable Method. Arithmetic adjustment from known settled values

Present Defined Benchmark. 'aggregate payout ... shall equal the Contract Size' is a named standard

Present Conclusive Link. Meeting the arithmetic condition directly establishes the required adjustment

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to the defined Mutually Exclusive Set

Partial Relevant Timeline. No explicit timing/order mechanics for adjustment when components settle at different times (e.g., via early Unconditional Determination)

Statistic Corrected After Conclusion

“governing body corrects or revises the Official Statistics after”

Determination: the NFL corrects/revises Official Statistics before Expiration · Consequence: settlement uses corrected statistics; post-Expiration corrections are disregarded

Present Independent Verification. Official correction by the governing body, a receivable verifiable action

Present Suitable Method. Direct substitution of corrected official data for settlement

Present Defined Benchmark. Clear temporal cutoff: correction must occur 'before Expiration'

Present Conclusive Link. Meeting the before-Expiration timing directly determines which data governs

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Covers the whole game's statistics as corrected

Present Relevant Timeline. Bounded explicitly by the Expiration cutoff

Venue Changed to Competing Team's Home Venue

“The game is moved to the home venue of the opposing team”

Determination: the game is relocated to the opposing team's home venue · Consequence: Contract resolves to last fair market price instead of statistical settlement

Present Independent Verification. Venue is an objectively verifiable public fact

Present Suitable Method. Straightforward factual check of venue against team's home stadium

Present Defined Benchmark. Condition is explicitly defined: relocation to the opposing team's home venue

Present Conclusive Link. Meeting the condition directly triggers the stated alternate resolution

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies specifically to the designated event

Present Relevant Timeline. One-offeligibility check appropriate to a single scheduled event

Position Accountability Level

“exceed the applicable position limit on an intraday”

Determination: a Member holds/controls aggregate positions at or above 125,000 contracts · Consequence: Member must provide position/strategy information and consents to Exchange instruction limiting position changes

Present Independent Verification. Position size is measured from the Exchange's own neutral trading records

Present Suitable Method. Direct count of held/controlled contracts against a numeric threshold

Present Defined Benchmark. 125,000 contracts accountability level is explicitly named

Present Conclusive Link. Meeting/exceeding the threshold directly triggers the disclosure/consent obligation

Present Comprehensive Coverage. Applies to the Member's own aggregate positions

Present Relevant Timeline. Measured 'on an intraday or end-of-day basis' matching the continuing obligation

Read 3 November 2026 with Warrant Check (instrument 1.0). Labels: Present, Partial, Absent describe whether each check is found in the wording as written. Not assessed: Conclusive Link cannot be judged where no Defined Benchmark is named; that follows from the missing benchmark and is not a separate gap.

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